Is the Syrian Pound (Syrian Lira) Going to Revaluate? SYP Currency Analysis

After years of economic struggles and a falling currency, a big question is on people’s minds: Is the Syrian Lira finally making a comeback?

Some recent changes—like the easing of sanctions and small steps toward rebuilding—have given people a bit of hope. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. A stronger currency isn’t just about a few good signs. It takes a lot more behind the scenes.

Today, we’ll look at what revaluation really means and whether Syria is in a position to make it happen anytime soon.

Understanding Currency Revaluation

For Syria, a true revaluation would mean the SYP strengthens against foreign currencies in a lasting way. This would reduce import costs, stabilize inflation, and boost national confidence. But achieving this requires more than sentiment—it demands real structural progress.

Before discussing Syria’s specific case, it’s important to understand the key currency terms:

• Devaluation refers to the deliberate lowering of a currency’s official exchange rate. Governments usually do this to make their exports cheaper and improve trade balances. Syria has experienced repeated devaluations since 2011.
• Revaluation is the opposite—it means increasing the official value of the currency relative to others. This is usually done when a country has strong economic fundamentals such as a trade surplus, stable inflation, and high foreign reserves.
• Redenomination is a cosmetic change to the currency’s face value—often by removing zeros—without changing its actual purchasing power. This is sometimes confused with revaluation but does not increase currency strength.

Key Conditions for Revaluation

Right now, Syria does not meet the main conditions for a currency revaluation. But some early steps seem to be happening. 

These are the basic things needed:

• Strong Trade Surplus: Revaluation is typically possible when a country exports more than it imports.
• Stable Inflation: High inflation undermines purchasing power and discourages revaluation.
• Healthy Reserves: Adequate foreign currency reserves give the central bank the confidence to defend a stronger currency.

Is the Central Bank Preparing the Ground?

There are growing indications that the Central Bank of Syria (CBS) is positioning itself for future currency reform. These efforts are still early and limited, but they hint at long-term intent. One change alone cannot fix the currency, but several steps together can show progress.

• Exchange Rate Unification: For years, Syria has operated with multiple exchange rates—one official, one for remittances, and others on the black market. This has created distortions and mistrust. Efforts are now underway to bring these rates closer together, a move that signals readiness for a more transparent and credible monetary policy.
• Inflation Control Measures: To stabilize the Pound, the CBS must tackle inflation. Reports suggest new controls on government spending and tighter liquidity policies are being considered. Subsidy reform and price monitoring are also playing a role.
• Rebuilding Reserves: Syria is seeking ways to rebuild its foreign reserves. This includes increased cooperation with allies like Iran and Russia, oil-for-loan deals, and opening new trade channels. Rebuilding reserves is essential to maintaining any new exchange rate level.
• Policy Coordination and External Advice: There are whispers that Syria may seek technical guidance from international consultants or institutions such as the IMF or regional financial bodies. Aligning its banking regulations with international standards could also attract capital and support a future revaluation.

Market Sentiment and Diaspora Influence

Public psychology and foreign remittances play a major role in currency dynamics, especially in post-crisis economies like Syria’s.

• Role of the Syrian Diaspora: Millions of Syrians live abroad, and their remittances have been a lifeline for families and the broader economy. These funds, often sent in foreign currencies, help support the SYP by adding to the supply in official channels, especially if converted legally.

If the diaspora believes the Syrian Lira will rise in value, they may convert more foreign currency to SYP. This behavior can fuel short-term appreciation. However, this speculative demand must be backed by real economic improvements to last.

• Local Speculation and Hoarding: Inside Syria, people are still wary of keeping money in banks or local currency. Years of hyperinflation and multiple exchange rates have damaged trust. Some may hoard dollars or euros as a hedge against uncertainty.

Rumors of revaluation or policy changes can lead to local speculation. If people expect the SYP to get stronger, they may rush to convert, creating a bubble. If expectations aren’t met, the result could be a sharp reversal.

• Regional Market Behavior: Currency behavior in neighboring markets—Lebanon, Jordan, and the UAE—also affects Syria. Traders in these countries often serve Syrian clients, and their confidence (or lack of it) sends signals back into Syria. Recently, sentiment has improved slightly, but it remains fragile.

Political Stability and Currency Valuation

A country’s money cannot grow stronger if people do not trust the government. Economic changes alone are not enough. People need to believe in the whole system. Without big changes in how things are run, any rise in the Syrian Pound could be weak or short-lived.

• Reconciliation and Peace Talks: Syria’s reconciliation process is ongoing. If talks lead to lasting peace and reduced conflict, it will boost investor confidence and economic activity, key factors for currency strength.
• Diplomatic Normalization: Steps toward normalizing relations with Gulf countries, Turkey, and even some Western nations could unlock trade and financial support. These developments would reflect positively on the SYP’s future.
• Anti-Corruption and Governance: Economic strength requires clear rules and fair systems. Syria has begun making moves against corruption and toward better public-sector management. But transparency, legal reforms, and stronger institutions are still needed.

Risks of Premature Revaluation

Raising the value of the Syrian Lira too soon or without fixing the economy first can be dangerous. Syria needs to take one step at a time. First, it should control inflation, then fix trade, and rebuild the banking system. Only after that should it think about changing the currency’s value.

1. Inflation Might Get Worse: If Syria raises the Pound’s value before fixing supply chains or helping local businesses, prices might go up. Imported goods could become cheaper, but local products may struggle to compete. This can hurt local producers and cause price shocks.
2. Trouble for Exports: When a currency becomes stronger, it makes a country’s goods more expensive for other countries. Syria is still trying to rebuild its farms and factories. A stronger Pound might slow down those efforts because exports would be harder to sell.
3. More Imports, Fewer Exports: If Syria raises the Pound’s value without growing its exports, people might start buying more foreign goods. This creates a trade gap, where Syria imports more than it sells. That can lead to long-term problems for the Pound.
4. Risk of a Bubble: If people think a revaluation is coming, they might rush to sell U.S. dollars and buy Syrian Pounds to make a quick profit. This can cause a short-term spike in value. But if the economy is not ready, the Pound could fall again suddenly. That would hurt everyone—businesses, families, and the government.
5. Lessons from Other Countries: Other countries have tried to raise their currencies’ value too fast and failed. Zimbabwe and Venezuela both saw their money crash again after trying. Even Iraq took years of support and strong oil sales to make the Dinar stable again. Syria needs to learn from these examples and move slowly and wisely.

Final Word

So, is the Syrian Lira headed for revaluation? It’s definitely possible, but it won’t happen overnight or just because people want it to. For the Pound to truly strengthen and stay strong, Syria needs more than hope — it needs real, lasting changes. That means smart planning, steady reforms, and a commitment to building stability over time.

Right now, the Syrian Lira is trading between 12,800 and 13,000 SYP per USD. This shows some cautious hope and a slightly better mood around the currency, but it’s not yet a clear sign that the Pound is gaining long-term strength.

The path won’t be easy, but with the right moves, the Pound could finally start to rise — and that would be a real sign of progress for the country.