Imagine waking up to the news that the Syrian pound is back to its old glory—trading at 50 or even 2,400 SYP per US dollar. For many Syrians, especially those who remember a time before the conflict, this idea is both comforting and desirable.
It sparks hope for stability, affordability, and a better future. But how realistic is this dream? Can a currency once shattered by war and crisis be magically restored to its previous strength?
Let’s unpack this complex issue, not just emotionally, but economically, and explore whether the Syrian pound has any real chance of returning to its former exchange rates.
The Myth of “Old Rates”: Can We Go Back?
The idea that the Syrian pound (SYP) can recover to its “old” exchange rates is more myth than reality. Before the conflict, the exchange rate was relatively stable, hovering between 47 to 50 SYP per USD, and later fluctuating between 150 to 250, then creeping toward 2,400 in the early years of the crisis. Fast forward to today, and the rate is hovering around 13,000 SYP per USD, a massive depreciation.
- Why the Old Rates Are Unrealistic Today: The world Syria once knew—economically, politically, and institutionally—no longer exists. Reclaiming old exchange rates assumes a return to that previous world, which is impossible without reversing the past decade’s damage.
- Structural Damage to the Economy:
- Loss of Infrastructure: Syria’s industrial capacity has been decimated. Factories, roads, and utilities—essential for production and trade—are severely damaged.
- Disrupted Agricultural and Energy Sectors: Key revenue-generating sectors like agriculture and oil have been disrupted or seized by foreign actors.
- Loss of Skilled Workforce: Millions of Syrians have fled or been displaced, draining the economy of talent, consumers, and productivity.
- Currency as a Mirror of Reality: Exchange rates are not just numbers—they reflect the real value of a nation’s economy compared to others.
A strong currency requires:
- Trust in the economy
- Confidence in governance
- Steady capital inflows
- Competitive exports
Historical Context vs. Present-Day Reality
To understand how far the Syrian pound has fallen, it’s important to trace how things evolved—and fell apart.
Before 2011, Syria had:
- A functioning central banking system
- Manageable inflation
- Foreign investments, especially from the Gulf
- A growing tourism and service sector
- Post-2011 Collapse
Following the onset of conflict, the Syrian economy faced:
- International sanctions: Severely limited trade, foreign aid, and investment.
- Hyperinflation: Prices of basic goods soared due to currency devaluation and scarcity.
- Depletion of foreign reserves: The Central Bank could no longer support the currency by buying SYP in the market.
- Dollarization: As trust in the local currency evaporated, people began using foreign currencies for transactions, further weakening the SYP.
- Sanctions and Isolation: Sanctions have cut Syria off from the global financial system, making it impossible for the country to access credit or stabilize its currency through international cooperation.
What Would Revaluation Require Economically?
Now to the core question: what would it actually take for the Syrian pound to revalue meaningfully?
Let’s break it down.
- Large and Sustained Inflows of Foreign Currency
For the pound to strengthen, Syria needs hard currency inflows from:
- Exports: Reliable and high-demand products like oil, textiles, and agricultural goods.
- Remittances: Money sent by Syrians abroad is a key lifeline.
- Foreign Investment: FDI boosts employment and brings in dollars.
- Rebuilding Institutional Trust
- The Central Bank needs to regain credibility.
- Monetary policy must focus on transparency, inflation control, and exchange rate management.
- Banking reforms are needed to encourage savings and domestic capital formation.
- Inflation Control
- Inflation must be reduced to single digits to stabilize the currency.
- This requires fiscal discipline, subsidy reforms, and productivity gains.
- Sanctions Relief and Global Re-engagement: Without access to global markets and multilateral financial institutions, any currency stabilization effort will remain severely hampered.
- Debt Management: Syria must find a way to restructure or reduce external debt and avoid excessive new borrowing that could undermine economic recovery efforts.
Psychological Attachment vs. Fiscal Prudence
Even though economists and policymakers understand that a return to old exchange rates is unrealistic, public sentiment often tells a different story.
The Emotional Pull of the “Old Pound”: For many Syrians, especially the older generation, the pre-war exchange rate symbolizes a time of normalcy. This nostalgia is deeply tied to:
- Lower living costs
- Higher purchasing power
- More stable lives
The Dangers of Artificial Revaluation: Some governments in similar situations have attempted artificial currency pegs or politically motivated revaluations. The result?
- Black markets: When official rates are artificially low, black markets thrive.
- Currency hoarding: People avoid exchanging at bad official rates, worsening the liquidity problem.
- Loss of reserves: Governments trying to maintain an artificial rate burn through reserves quickly.
External Debt and Forex Reserves Challenges
A crucial reason why revaluation remains out of reach is the dire state of Syria’s foreign currency reserves and debt profile.
reforms first.
- Shrinking Forex Reserves: The Central Bank of Syria has very limited foreign currency reserves. This makes it difficult to take action in the currency market. When the pound loses value, the central bank cannot provide enough support to stop it from falling further. As a result, the Syrian pound continues to weaken.
The lack of foreign reserves also creates problems for importing critical goods. Without enough dollars or euros, Syria cannot easily buy fuel, medicine, or food from abroad. This affects the daily lives of many people in the country.
- Reliance on Informal Markets: Syria cannot borrow money from international capital markets. Because of this, it depends on money that comes from other informal sources. These include remittances sent home by Syrians living in other countries, goods smuggled across borders, and unofficial transfers of dollars inside the country.
These sources of income are not reliable. They change from month to month and are hard for the government to monitor or control. This makes it difficult to build a clear or stable currency policy. The economy becomes unpredictable, and planning for the future becomes very hard.
- Mounting External Debt: Syria continues to add to its external debt. This includes loans for military support and rebuilding the country, mainly from allies like Russia and Iran. There are also debts from before the war that still need to be paid.
Over time, Syria will need to restructure its debt. But before creditors agree to any changes, they will ask the government to make reforms. These reforms could include changes to economic policy, increased transparency, and better financial management.
Final Thoughts:
It’s completely understandable why many Syrians want the pound to go back to its pre-crisis value. Life was simpler, and financial stress wasn’t crushing every household. But the truth is, currencies don’t work like time machines. The Syrian pound reflects the health of the economy, not its history.
A revaluation to pre-war levels is not just unlikely—it’s nearly impossible without a complete economic overhaul, debt restructuring, political stability, and reintegration into the global financial system.
That doesn’t mean Syria is doomed forever. Currency stability can be achieved. Rebuilding takes time, policy discipline, and international cooperation. But rather than chasing old numbers, Syria would be better served by setting new, realistic goals for economic recovery.
The past may feel familiar, but the future must be forged with clarity—not blurry dreams.
Because sometimes, the real strength of a currency isn’t in going back—but in moving forward.
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