IRAQI DINAR: TRUMP’S ROLE IN IRAQ COULD SHOCK DINAR INVESTORS

There’s a new ripple in the world of Iraqi dinar speculation—and it’s coming straight from the White House. With Donald Trump back in office, investors are buzzing with renewed curiosity and cautious excitement. 

Could Trump’s bold and unpredictable leadership in his second term shake up US-Iraq relations and influence the future of the dinar? His return has reignited discussions about oil deals, military presence, and economic leverage—key factors that could shape Iraq’s monetary policy. 

As Trump reasserts his influence on the global stage, understanding his evolving approach to Iraq could reveal unexpected twists that every dinar holder should be paying close attention to.

US Policy Toward Iraq During the Trump Era

Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has rekindled debate about his bold and often unconventional foreign policy—especially when it comes to Iraq. His first term laid the groundwork for a sharp departure from traditional US diplomatic strategies, and many believe his second term may follow a similar path. Let’s break down how Trump’s policies shaped—and continue to shape—Iraq’s political and economic environment.

• “America First” in the Middle East: Trump’s foreign policy was unapologetically rooted in his “America First” philosophy. Rather than pursuing long-term nation-building or democratic reforms abroad, Trump zeroed in on what he viewed as direct benefits to the United States. This included reducing military commitments overseas and rebalancing trade and security arrangements in America’s favor.

In Iraq, this shift meant fewer long-term strategic initiatives and more targeted actions to protect American interests, particularly in the fight against terrorism and in limiting Iranian expansion through Iraqi territory.

• Counterterrorism Over Nation-Building: Under Trump, US involvement in Iraq was reframed around combating terrorism, especially ISIS, with far less emphasis on supporting political development or infrastructure rebuilding. This tactical focus helped eliminate some of ISIS’s strongholds but also reduced US influence in shaping Iraq’s broader governance and economic reforms.

As a result, Iraq found itself caught between various regional and global players—all while struggling to maintain stability and rebuild its post-conflict economy.

• Economic Pressure as a Strategic Tool: Rather than relying solely on military might, the Trump administration used economic pressure as a primary instrument of influence. Sanctions targeting Iran and its proxies inside Iraq became a central tool in this strategy. The US Treasury ramped up efforts to block financial channels linked to militia groups, political entities, and individuals believed to be aligned with Iranian interests.

These efforts extended to Iraq’s banking system. US scrutiny of Iraqi financial institutions—especially those suspected of facilitating transactions with sanctioned entities—created ripple effects throughout the country’s economy. Some banks were restricted from accessing the US dollar market, which in turn impacted currency flows and investor confidence.

• Impact on the Iraqi Dinar: Though not aimed directly at the Iraqi dinar, these policies inevitably had indirect consequences on the currency’s stability. The uncertainty generated by sanctions and tighter financial controls made it harder for Iraq to maintain smooth economic operations. In moments of high tension, fear of US financial retaliation led to capital flight and pressure on the dinar.

Still, it’s important to note that the Trump administration never explicitly sought to revalue or manipulate the dinar. Rather, the currency’s movements were the result of broader geopolitical tensions and the strain on Iraq’s financial infrastructure.

Military Withdrawal and Oil Contracts

One of the most defining elements of Donald Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East—both in his previous term and now in his current administration—has been his desire to scale back military involvement while securing economic leverage through key resources like oil. In Iraq, these goals played out in very deliberate, and at times controversial, ways.

• Scaling Back: Trump made no secret of his desire to end what he repeatedly referred to as “endless wars.” This philosophy translated into a gradual drawdown of U.S. troops in Iraq. While maintaining a small contingent to assist with anti-ISIS operations and offer advisory support, Trump’s administration reduced the overall American military footprint in the region.

This shift was partly in response to growing sentiment within the U.S. public—and among Iraqi leaders—that foreign military presence should be minimized. In January 2020, after the U.S. drone strike that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on Iraqi soil, the Iraqi parliament passed a resolution calling for all foreign troops to leave. While Trump did not comply fully, he did use the moment to reaffirm his goal of reducing American involvement while reminding Iraqi leaders of U.S. leverage.

• “You Owe Us”: What set Trump apart was his transactional tone with allies. He didn’t shy away from publicly stating that U.S. military protection came at a price. At one point, he even threatened Iraq with severe sanctions if American troops were expelled hastily. This was not typical diplomatic language—it was business-style negotiation applied to international relations.

For Iraqi officials, this marked a turning point. The relationship was no longer about shared long-term goals, but about strategic transactions. Trump made it clear: if Iraq wanted continued U.S. support, particularly in counterterrorism and defense, there had to be economic and political concessions.

• The Oil Card: When it came to Iraq’s most valuable resource—oil—Trump’s strategy became even more assertive. He pushed for Iraq to increase its oil production, particularly by resuming exports from the Kurdish region, which had been inconsistent due to internal disputes and regional tensions.

The logic was twofold:

• Stabilize global oil markets: With oil prices often swinging wildly due to Middle East instability, Trump viewed increased Iraqi exports as a tool to balance markets and ease pressure on American consumers.
  
• Cut off Iran’s funding: By helping Iraq—and particularly the Kurdish north—increase exports, the U.S. hoped to divert oil revenue away from Iranian proxies operating inside Iraq, especially those militias accused of undermining both American and Iraqi sovereignty.

While conspiracy theories swirled about foreign control over Iraq’s oil fields, credible international reports confirmed that Iraq has maintained full ownership and sovereignty over its oil. However, the Trump administration’s intense interest in Iraqi oil highlighted how deeply intertwined energy policy and foreign diplomacy had become under his leadership.

• Long-Term Implications for the Dinar: Oil remains the backbone of Iraq’s economy, accounting for more than 90% of government revenue. Any major shift in production, pricing, or export routes has ripple effects across the country’s economic health—and by extension, its currency.

While Trump never directly tied oil policy to a revaluation of the dinar, his emphasis on boosting Iraqi exports and increasing U.S. economic oversight over financial transactions strengthened the connection between geopolitical strategy and monetary outcomes. In this light, Iraq’s ability to stabilize and grow its oil sector becomes a crucial factor for anyone watching the dinar.

Currency Stability Under US-Iraq Relations

The Trump administration’s policies indirectly impacted the Iraqi dinar’s stability. Sanctions targeting Iran and its networks in Iraq created economic uncertainty, pressuring Iraq’s financial system. The US Treasury’s financial intelligence measures aimed to restrict funds to groups hostile to US interests. While these actions targeted illicit activities, they also contributed to volatility in Iraq’s currency and banking sectors.​

Despite speculation, there was no direct intervention by the Trump administration to revalue or drastically alter the dinar’s exchange rate. The Central Bank of Iraq maintained control over the currency, focusing on stability amidst external pressures.​

What Dinar Speculators Assumed About Trump

Many dinar investors speculated that Trump’s assertive foreign policy and business acumen would lead to a significant revaluation of the Iraqi dinar. Let me make it more clear for you.

• Trump the Businessman: Many dinar holders viewed Donald Trump not just as a politician, but as a successful businessman who understood money, negotiations, and international deals. His “Art of the Deal” persona led to widespread belief that he might leverage his presidency to support undervalued currencies like the Iraqi dinar. Investors hoped he would approach global finance the same way he approached business—boldly and with a focus on profit.
• The Rumors: Speculation grew across online forums and social media that Trump was working behind the scenes with U.S. financial institutions to establish special “redemption centers.” These rumors included claims of classified meetings between administration officials and major banks, allegedly to prepare for a sudden RV (revaluation) of the dinar. Some even believed that select investors would be offered preferential rates during this process.
• No Proof, Just Hype: Despite the excitement, no credible source ever confirmed that such meetings or arrangements took place. The Trump administration made no public policy statements about the dinar, nor did they introduce any legislation or executive orders related to a currency reset. These assumptions were largely driven by misinformation, recycled theories, and wishful thinking—not by actual economic developments or international agreements.
• Why Investors Believed It Anyway: The belief persisted because of a mix of factors: Trump’s unpredictable style, his tough talk on Iran (which plays a major role in Iraqi politics), and the emotional appeal of a “get rich quick” opportunity. When combined with the echo chamber effect of online communities, many investors were convinced that a major financial shift was imminent, even in the absence of real-world signals.
• Separating Hope from Reality: While Trump’s administration did influence Iraq’s political and economic environment—especially through sanctions and military strategy—there was never a policy focused on revaluing the dinar. The Central Bank of Iraq, not the U.S. president, controls the currency’s value. Investors would be wise to focus on Iraq’s internal reforms and long-term economic recovery, rather than speculation based on political figures.

Lasting Impact of Trump’s Decisions

Trump’s legacy in Iraq is multifaceted. His administration’s reduction of military involvement and emphasis on economic leverage have reshaped the US-Iraq relationship. The focus shifted from a military alliance to a more advisory and economic partnership. The “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran continues to influence Iraq’s economy and politics, affecting currency stability and investor sentiment.​

The transactional approach—prioritizing US interests, pressuring for oil exports, and using sanctions—has left Iraq balancing its ties between Washington and Tehran. This delicate balance has implications for both security and economic policy, influencing the dinar’s potential for appreciation.​

Final Thoughts:

Let’s be honest—Donald Trump is anything but predictable. His decisions often left both allies and critics guessing. While there’s no direct evidence that he pushed for an Iraqi dinar revaluation, his policies undeniably stirred the pot in the Middle East. Reducing troop presence, pressuring Iran, and playing hardball on oil were all part of a bigger strategic game—but whether that game ever included the dinar in a meaningful way remains unproven.

Dinar investors shouldn’t hang their hopes on headlines or internet rumors. It’s easy to get caught up in the hype, especially when it involves big names like Trump. But in the world of currency and economics, moves are made slowly, quietly, and based on much more than presidential speeches.

Trump may not have made any direct moves toward a revaluation—but with him, who really knows what’s behind the curtain? The smarter play is to watch Iraq itself: its economic growth, reforms, and stability. That’s where the real clues lie. 

Stay informed, stay grounded—and remember, speculation is a spark, but strategy is the fuel.